Market Forecast

My market commentary.

It seems like it has been nothing but positive as we continue to rally off of January’s lows. 8 day win streak for the Dow, and there are resistance breaking and support bounces galore throughout the market. Looking at the Fib retracements and current market trends, im estimating a possible move to DOW @ 11,000 in 9 weeks if this breakout holds. Bernanke continuing to destroy the dollar is bullish, the market forecast study at the bottom of the graph shows bullish traits, the only thing that is of concern is that there is hardly any volume backing this new high. But as the saying goes. “The market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent.”

DOW
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As for the S&P, well we broke the 1150 major resistance level on the S&P 500. This new high was confirmed by todays low on the $VIX. Looking at 1250 as a new 9 week possible target should the trend continue.

S&P 500
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Russel 2000, bullish as the rest of them.

The Rut
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The Nasdaq is continuing its trend upward. Lots of great tech stocks and semiconductors are making this index hot.

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Semiconductors
Another very bullish index full of breakouts this week. Really liking the looks of LLTC and INTC. Great volume and great confirmed break outs are everywhere in this industry.

Semiconductors
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Financial and Energry sector are on a tear. FAS is still making higher highs and higher lows. Bull flag is confirmed. Makes sense, FAS is an ETF that tracks the russel financial, which have also been on fire.

FAS
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Short term trend ` 5 weeks: UP
Middle term 12 wks: Sideways
Long term 12 mo: UP

Stocks im watching: FAS, POT, LLTC, GMCR, IWM, UYP, BA, ERX

TREND IS UP. Volatility is low. Currently looking at positive vega postions in my portfolio to take advantage of a possibile volatility spike. Mainly april-may calendars and diagonals.

Remember to follow your rules, Jon! Sometimes you have to lose money to make money.

Have a good one.

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