Mucky Monday

Market looks weak today, particularly the financials. All kinds of doom to go around, but the most important thing to me is the bearish candle from today on the /ES. To me, this candle suggests a consolidation into tomorrow, perhaps even a revisit to the May lows before we can rally again. Let’s see what unfolds, but for now I’m positioning around that revisit to the May lows, I have 1 or 2 small positions on to speculate now but I’m going to hold off on executing a lot of orders until tomorrow morning.

/NQ 2500 and /ES 1295 are particularly interesting levels for me to jump in.

This image is particularly fitting for today.

Advertisements

/NQ

Dear Jon,

The daily chart of the Nasdaq looks ugly!  Jon, the daily chart of the Nasdaq looks ugly.  Ugly as in bearish.

Love,

Jon

P.S. this is a hint for you to find premium and let the market come to you, not to trade directionally just yet.

Hump Day!

Market is pausing yet again to start the day off today. Dow is down about 100 and the Nasdaq futures are off about 1% as well. AAPL is crashing the whole marketplace down 5 bucks. Sky is falling really.

Let’s not freak out. Support is near. Have a look at some of these charts, take a deep breath and remember that a market pause in an up trending market actually means risk is being taken OFF of the table. T

    his is an opportunity.

Ill be back in to AAPL at 621. Also looking for a nice setup on SPY.

Check it.

The Nasdaq. AHHHHHH its over!!!!!!!! The sky is falling!

SPY. The 140 ish area is looking like a good area for some spreads.

Symmetry

My thoughts exactly:

And just for some color. The last 10 days of the S&P from 2010 – 1987.  14/10 ended the year on a higher note.

Side note:  I’m doing a really shitty job and this daily routine thing. …Must clean out life!

Tuesday Thoughts

Markets took a hit yesterday.  The S&P finished down -1.5% to finish at 1236 well within the trading range from last week. So this is not a make or break level here but it was a significant sell off and bullish momentum is quickly fading especially with the financial sector showing major weakness here.  Time to sit back and watch the direction unfold.  I will be searching for bull and bear flags throughout the market today.

 

SPX
Resistance: 1,249, 1,260, 1,277, 1,292
Support: 1,230, 1,216, 1,205

From yesterday:

Watch for a consolidation in gold.

Yup. Big time break down from the pennant pattern. 

Watch the Euro (XEU). On a weekly chart the Euro is at a key level of support. What’s going to happen?

More selling but holding support.

1. Investors will speak ( starting with todays sell off)

2. Credit ratings will speak

3. The people will speak

Will there be rejection off of the 200 SMA on the SPX?

Yup

Will there be a downtick in bullish momentum on the MACD?

Yes on the MACD histogram and on the stochastic.  Really looking for a close below 1227 to get bearish. 

What is the VIX doing?

The VIX closed down and so did the market.  Indicating a disagreement between the VIX and today’s sell off.  The VIX is currently testing previous lows in a falling wedge pattern.  Continue to watch this unfold.  VXX may become a great trade in the coming days. 

Also, please add a 50 sma to your 401k charting style tonight.

I forgot.  Please do this tonight.

 

 

Tuesday Front Runners:

FOMC Meeting expect the market to sensitive to it.

Watch for significant activity in the financials

Watch for a sell off below 1227.

Any new VIX developments?

Watch for SPY over 125 attempting a gap fill and therefore a lower high ( easier to see on a 5 min chart).

Also, please add a 50 sma to your 401k charting style tonight.

 

CBOE Shame

Occupy Together has been on a charge as of late. Occupy Together being the lovechild of the Occupy Wall St. operations is a group to spread the messages of the 99% nationally outside of NYC. There have been rallies in almost every major US city as of today. Boston, Chicago, LA, to name a few I witnessed Occupy Baltimore firsthand myself just yesterday and they were still there this morning on my way to work.

While the rally was taking place out side of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade. This sign was posted.

“We are the 1%”

I find this particularly funny because the success rate of traders is actually extremely low. That, and a 1% traders office is not on the 8th floor. Traders are not the 1%, the people they represent are.

Continuing my defense fore traders all I have to say is: I’ve been on the trade floor in that building. I’ve conversed and shared meals with the men and women within that building. Of which, I could tie none of their personalities to something like this. Not one. This is simply a sick joke. Remember that unlike the 1% it is possible for a trader to go broke. It happens every day. Karma will catch up to the fools that posted that.

Market T.A. 6-21-11

Overall the markets seem to be gaining some strength in the near term. All of the indexes have bounced off of their 200 SMA and now have some sort of bullish signs.

The SPX shows a confirmed inverted hammer candle pattern. (bullish)

INDU shows a confirmed inverted hammer. Check out that volume spike last Friday!

RUT has a bullish engulfing pattern.

Nasdaq has a piercing line pattern. Tech will hopefully pick up this week.

Additional confirmation of this bullish technical analysis comes from Monday’s price action on the VIX (Volatility Index) which closed down -1.86 at 21.85 confirming the SPX move. Additionally, breadth on the the NYSE increased to 2.1:1 gainers to losers showing that buyers are stepping back in.

In summary, ALL of this technical analysis is bullish in the short term. The longer term trend direction will be confirmed in 3 weeks during the next earnings season.

Happy trading!