Tuesday Thoughts

Markets took a hit yesterday.  The S&P finished down -1.5% to finish at 1236 well within the trading range from last week. So this is not a make or break level here but it was a significant sell off and bullish momentum is quickly fading especially with the financial sector showing major weakness here.  Time to sit back and watch the direction unfold.  I will be searching for bull and bear flags throughout the market today.

 

SPX
Resistance: 1,249, 1,260, 1,277, 1,292
Support: 1,230, 1,216, 1,205

From yesterday:

Watch for a consolidation in gold.

Yup. Big time break down from the pennant pattern. 

Watch the Euro (XEU). On a weekly chart the Euro is at a key level of support. What’s going to happen?

More selling but holding support.

1. Investors will speak ( starting with todays sell off)

2. Credit ratings will speak

3. The people will speak

Will there be rejection off of the 200 SMA on the SPX?

Yup

Will there be a downtick in bullish momentum on the MACD?

Yes on the MACD histogram and on the stochastic.  Really looking for a close below 1227 to get bearish. 

What is the VIX doing?

The VIX closed down and so did the market.  Indicating a disagreement between the VIX and today’s sell off.  The VIX is currently testing previous lows in a falling wedge pattern.  Continue to watch this unfold.  VXX may become a great trade in the coming days. 

Also, please add a 50 sma to your 401k charting style tonight.

I forgot.  Please do this tonight.

 

 

Tuesday Front Runners:

FOMC Meeting expect the market to sensitive to it.

Watch for significant activity in the financials

Watch for a sell off below 1227.

Any new VIX developments?

Watch for SPY over 125 attempting a gap fill and therefore a lower high ( easier to see on a 5 min chart).

Also, please add a 50 sma to your 401k charting style tonight.

 

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Market T.A. 6-21-11

Overall the markets seem to be gaining some strength in the near term. All of the indexes have bounced off of their 200 SMA and now have some sort of bullish signs.

The SPX shows a confirmed inverted hammer candle pattern. (bullish)

INDU shows a confirmed inverted hammer. Check out that volume spike last Friday!

RUT has a bullish engulfing pattern.

Nasdaq has a piercing line pattern. Tech will hopefully pick up this week.

Additional confirmation of this bullish technical analysis comes from Monday’s price action on the VIX (Volatility Index) which closed down -1.86 at 21.85 confirming the SPX move. Additionally, breadth on the the NYSE increased to 2.1:1 gainers to losers showing that buyers are stepping back in.

In summary, ALL of this technical analysis is bullish in the short term. The longer term trend direction will be confirmed in 3 weeks during the next earnings season.

Happy trading!